Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.049938 1.109102 1.170399 1.238773 1.313056 1.391479 1.480743
2026-02-08 0.937838 1.019364 1.107410 1.210027 1.326933 1.456672 1.612526
2026-02-15 0.874473 0.969261 1.074616 1.201289 1.350659 1.522708 1.738107
2026-02-22 0.832519 0.937367 1.056648 1.203792 1.382392 1.594763 1.870451
2026-03-01 0.787847 0.898153 1.025992 1.186991 1.387093 1.631433 1.958537
2026-03-08 0.743342 0.855989 0.988530 1.158322 1.373568 1.642370 2.011886
2026-03-15 0.713250 0.829205 0.967613 1.147853 1.380778 1.678163 2.097951
2026-03-22 0.699078 0.820779 0.968231 1.163582 1.421236 1.758110 2.247612
2026-03-29 0.680015 0.805140 0.958695 1.165183 1.442431 1.812640 2.364792
2026-04-05 0.667158 0.796519 0.957306 1.176772 1.476820 1.886222 2.513631
2026-04-12 0.646419 0.776906 0.940756 1.167119 1.481190 1.917432 2.601330
2026-04-19 0.636053 0.770111 0.940369 1.178793 1.515170 1.992022 2.759567
2026-04-26 0.612694 0.746113 0.917078 1.159062 1.505027 2.003578 2.823482
2026-05-03 0.588241 0.719942 0.890024 1.133031 1.484571 1.998628 2.860618
2026-05-10 0.572209 0.704328 0.876469 1.125083 1.489649 2.031926 2.962295
2026-05-17 0.560965 0.694656 0.870488 1.127361 1.509568 2.088696 3.107607
2026-05-24 0.544180 0.676959 0.852847 1.112072 1.502143 2.101766 3.177903
2026-05-31 0.524559 0.654857 0.828416 1.085961 1.476926 2.084774 3.193026
2026-06-07 0.511619 0.641504 0.815706 1.076420 1.476587 2.107722 3.281869
2026-06-14 0.507309 0.639826 0.819200 1.090753 1.513839 2.194338 3.496227
2026-06-21 0.499055 0.632411 0.814279 1.092212 1.530625 2.247413 3.651599
2026-06-28 0.494072 0.629377 0.815438 1.102767 1.562313 2.327676 3.868265
2026-07-05 0.483374 0.618015 0.804247 1.093975 1.561948 2.351775 3.973355